Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
Latest reading
As of June 5, 2026, Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y spread) stands at 0.38pp — down from 0.42pp the prior reading. Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–24 months, with the 10Y−3M version the academically preferred signal. The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell, not the all-clear. Series history runs from 1976 to present.
10Y − 2Y spread
Full history
How to read it
Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–24 months, with the 10Y−3M version the academically preferred signal. The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell, not the all-clear.