Decision desk · updated after every close
One market.
Four clocks.
As of the July 27, 2026 close, the tape is contested, swing conditions are constructive, the cycle is a broad advance, and long-term valuation risk is extreme. Four live reads connect today’s tape to the decade ahead — each with its own historical base rate and a condition that would change the read.
Built & maintained by Yuriy Matso · daily market data as of 2026-07-27 close · slower releases are labeled below.
10-session dimension scores · session control 29/100 · breadth 43/100 · volume confirmation 42/100 · pressure prints 37/100 · volatility 43/100 · overnight gap 77/100
The four clocks — choose your holding period
colors describe today's condition, not expected returnHealthy underneath, contested at the surface, expensive later. The broader market structure remains healthy, but short-term control is contested and long-run prices are stretched. Those readings can coexist because they answer different questions; none is a stand-alone buy or sell signal.
Desk rule: do not average the clocks — Tape, Swing, Cycle and Valuation answer different questions, so disagreement is information, not an error to smooth away.
What moved today.
2026-07-27 closeThe most unusual changes across everything we track — threshold crossings, regime flips, unusually large moves, and fresh economic releases.
- Durable Goods$335B07-27
- Core Capex12.5%07-27
- Recession Flag07-27
- Policy Uncertainty07-27
- Fed Funds07-27
- Retail MMF07-28
- Case-Shiller07-28
- M207-28
The supporting read
Evidence by horizon.
Start with the summary and state-change threshold. Expand a card only when you want the full methodology and historical table.
Tape · today – 5 sessions
Short-term control is contested at 45/100; today’s tape character is middle-of-the-road tape.
Historical comparison
next 5 sessions · 1,375 casesNext state change
Improves to bulls leaning at 58. Weakens to bears leaning below 42.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
The Tape Score reads who controls the last 10 sessions — 100 is full bull control, 0 full bear control. Today: 45/100 from session control 29, breadth 43, volume confirmation 42, pressure prints 37, volatility 43, overnight gap 77. Character check: middle-of-the-road tape (move size 0.84%, follow-through 46.5%).
Full historical table
Average SPY return after every prior day in this band, 2010+. The bands are contrarian at the extremes: bear-controlled tapes preceded the best forward returns.
Threshold details
Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30. Score 45 is 13 points below bulls leaning (58); a 4-point drop reaches bears leaning (below 42). Session control and breadth usually move it fastest.
Related tools
Swing · 1 week – 3 months
Multi-week conditions are constructive at 63/100; momentum is weakest at 48/100.
Historical comparison
next 3 months · 845 casesNext state change
Improves to healthy at 75. Weakens to fragile below 55. Momentum is the main swing factor.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
The Swing Score reads market condition over the multi-week window — 10 daily internals across five dimensions (trend, participation, momentum, leadership & divergence, volatility & credit), each classified on a documented threshold. Momentum now uses a 21-session change in % above 50-day breadth velocity in place of the faster McClellan Oscillator. Weakest dimension right now: momentum at 48/100.
Full historical table
Average SPY return after every prior day in this band, 2019+. Contrarian: the stressed bands preceded the strongest forward returns.
Threshold details
Band edges are fixed at 75/55/35. Score 63 is 8 points above the Fragile line (55); momentum (48/100) is the swing factor.
Related tools
Cycle · 3 – 12 months
The medium-term structure is broad advance at 70/100; breadth velocity is weakest at 49/100.
Historical comparison
next 6 months · 981 casesNext state change
Weakens to constructive below 70. Breadth velocity is the main swing factor.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
The Cycle Score reads the 3–12 month structure — 100 is a broadly owned advance, 0 a contraction. Today: 70/100 from trend 66, participation 64, breadth velocity 49, credit 69, growth cycle 100, recession risk 74. Thirteen inputs across six dimensions — including the OECD leading indicator, Baa credit premium and the new recession-risk block (yield curve, Sahm Rule, NFCI), joined by release date — each with documented fixed bounds, all itemized with their year-charts on the Cycle Tracker.
Full historical table
Average SPY return after every prior day in this band, 2010+. Contrarian at the extremes: contraction bands preceded the strongest forward returns.
Threshold details
Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30. Score 70 is in the top band; a 1-point drop reaches constructive (below 70). Breadth velocity and participation move first at this horizon.
Related tools
Valuation · 3 – 10 years
8 of 10 gauges and 3 of 3 pillars are extreme; the current fingerprint most resembles 2000 peak.
Historical comparison
next 3 years · 52 casesNext state change
Each gauge leaves the extreme count only when its bubble percentile falls below 90; the scorecard lists the nearest holdouts.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
8 of 10 valuation, allocation and leverage gauges sit past the 90th percentile of their own published history (a "bubble percentile" — oriented so higher always means more bubble-like). The fingerprint most resembles the 2000 peak. Same framework, replayed with no hindsight: 2000 = 10/10 · 2007 = 2/10 · 2021–22 = 5/10.
Full historical table
Average SPY return after months this stretched, 1997+. The next 12 months averaged +7.9% — valuation says nothing about the year ahead; it sets the odds for the decade.
Threshold details
Gauge by gauge: each drops out below the 90th bubble percentile of its own history (thresholds listed on the scorecard). The nearest holdouts and drivers are itemized on the Bubble Tracker.
Related tools
Why can the clocks disagree?
The clocks genuinely disagree, and that is information rather than error. The Tape Score is contested; swing conditions are constructive; valuation sits at historical extremes. These readings run on different horizons: short clocks describe current control and market structure, while valuation changes long-run expectations. The same valuation framework was already extreme through 1998–2000 even as the near-term tape continued to advance.
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Built to be checked
daily market data · 2026-07-27Primary data
Exchange data, Fed Z.1/H.8, BEA, FINRA, Cboe and Shiller inputs processed by our own pipeline.
Honest timestamps
Daily, monthly and quarterly inputs keep their own release dates; slower data is never presented as live.
Published base rates
Every state is compared with all days. Color describes the current state, not expected return or a trade recommendation.
Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso · methodology · how it works · how we use AI · educational, not financial advice.