high = bubble · as of Q1 2026
Today
97th
full 99 · 20Y 97
2000 peak
99th
164%
2007 peak
85th
131%
2021–22 peak
98th
229%
ValuationMarket data through 2026-07-24 · monthly through 2026-07 · quarterly through Q1 2026
Bubble Tracker: Is the Market in a Bubble?
Yes — by this framework, the market is in bubble territory: 3 of 3 pillars and 8 of 10 scored gauges are at historical extremes. This measures valuation conditions, not the timing of a top. Every gauge is scored point-in-time — using only data that had been released by the evaluation date — so today's score is directly comparable to what the identical framework read at the March 2000, October 2007 and January 2022 peaks.
What drives today's answer
Closest analogue
The fingerprint most resembles the 2000 peak.
Scored holdout
Excess CAPE Yield, Household Cash Allocation
Why 2007 differs
Just 2/10 gauges — a credit bubble, not a valuation bubble.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-07-24 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
Fed Z.1 & H.8 + BEA + Moody's via FRED, Robert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com), FINRA margin statistics, own daily price history (XLK/SPY) and breadth universe (~5,500 stocks)
Methodology
Three pillars (valuation / allocation & liquidity / leverage) of scored gauges + unscored context. Point-in-time scoring: values count only after release; effective bubble percentile = lower of expanding-history and trailing-20-year readings; extreme = ≥90th; 5+ years of published history required to vote. Identical framework replayed at the 2000-03-24 / 2007-10-09 / 2022-01-03 peaks; history and outcome bands use the share of live gauges so the basket stays comparable as it grows.
Updates
Daily after US close for market-based gauges; monthly (FINRA) and quarterly (Fed Z.1) for the restLast: 2026-07-24
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Bubble trackerpoint-in-time framework
YES
8/10
3 of 3 pillars at extremes — conditions, not timing
Today
8/10
3/3 pillars
2000
10/10
3/3 pillars
2007
2/10
1/3 pillars
2021–22
5/10
2/3 pillars
Same framework, same release-aware data at every date. A gauge votes only past the 90th bubble percentile under BOTH its full history and the trailing 20 years, and only with 5+ years of published history.
01
The score through time — calibrated at every peak
Scored gauges at extremes (red), month by month since 1997, with no look-ahead — against the gray capacity line showing how many gauges were live. All 10 gauges are live before the 2000 peak (the margin pair's pre-FINRA history comes from the Fed's Z.1 broker-dealer series, spliced at 1997), so the peaks compare like-for-like: the framework maxed out at 10/10 at the 2000 top, read just 2/10 at the 2007 top — leverage was its only extreme pillar; the excess lived in credit and housing — climbed to 5/10 at the 2021–22 peak, and reads 8/10 today.
Gauges at extremesGauges live (basket size)
Gauges at extremesGauges live (basket size)
02
The pillars — expand the underlying gauges
Gauges are grouped into three pillars so overlapping measures can't stuff the ballot. The four allocation gauges describe one phenomenon and the pillar votes once; a pillar is extreme when at least half its live gauges are. Open a pillar for its full-history charts. Context gauges remain unscored.
Direct valuation
3/4 extreme
Price vs the economy, vs earnings, and vs bonds — the Buffett Indicator, the cap-to-profits multiple, the Shiller CAPE, and Shiller's Excess CAPE Yield (the rates rebuttal).
Allocation & liquidity
3/4 extreme
How fully invested the economy is: household equity/cash allocations, sideline cash, and stocks priced in money supply. These four overlap by construction — the pillar votes once.
Leverage & speculation
2/2 extreme
Whether the rally is being carried on borrowed money: margin debt growing faster than the market (the flow) and margin debt as a share of M2 (the stock).
Direct valuation3/4 extremeOpen 4 charts ↓Close ↑
Buffett Indicator (Cap/GDP) At extreme
The market value of all US public equities as a percent of nominal GDP — price vs the economy. Buffett’s "best single measure," from the Fed’s Z.1, since the early 1950s.
Market Cap / Corporate Profits At extreme
The aggregate P/E of the whole market: public equity value over economy-wide after-tax profits. The earnings-based cross-check on the Buffett Indicator — the two disagreeing is the margin debate.
Shiller CAPE (P/E10) At extreme
The S&P 500 against ten years of real earnings — the most-cited valuation measure in finance, from Shiller’s own dataset since 1881. Smooths the profit cycle that whipsaws ordinary P/Es.
Excess CAPE Yield Not extreme
Shiller’s answer to "low rates justify it": the CAPE earnings yield minus the real 10-year Treasury yield — what stocks offer OVER bonds. LOW is the bubble signature; it went negative at the 2000 peak but stayed healthy through the zero-rate 2021 top.
Allocation & liquidity3/4 extremeOpen 4 charts ↓Close ↑
Household Equity Allocation At extreme
The share of household financial assets in equities (Fed Z.1) — how fully invested households already are. High allocations have preceded weak decade returns.
Sideline Cash Ratio At extreme
Money-fund assets plus bank deposits relative to the market value of all US public equities. LOW is the bubble signature: the cash cushion is small next to the market it would have to support.
Household Cash Allocation Not extreme
Cash, deposits and money-fund shares as a share of household financial assets. The 2000 bubble bottomed this near 12.8%; LOW is the bubble direction.
SPY / M2 Money Supply At extreme
The S&P 500 priced in units of money supply — how far the market has outrun the liquidity behind it.
Leverage & speculation2/2 extremeOpen 2 charts ↓Close ↑
Margin Debt: Excess Leverage At extreme
Margin-debt growth minus SPY growth, year over year (FINRA monthly; 1994–97 from the quarterly Z.1 margin series). Sustained readings above +20 marked the late stages of the 2000, 2007 and 2021 cycles.
Margin Debt as % of M2 At extreme
Margin debt as a share of the M2 money supply — how much of the economy’s spendable money is borrowed against portfolios. FINRA monthly from 1997, spliced to the Fed’s Z.1 broker-dealer margin-loan series back to 1959 (the two track within ~4% at the junction).
Context — no votewealth concentration, profit margins, housing, credit pricing, tech concentrationOpen 5 charts ↓Close ↑
Top 1% Wealth Share Context — no vote
CONTEXT, not a vote: the top 1%’s share of household net worth swells with equity valuations, but it trends structurally and says nothing about timing.
Corporate Profits % of GDP Context — no vote
CONTEXT, not a vote — the margin debate in one line: record profit shares are why the market looks tame against earnings while screaming against GDP. If margins mean-revert, the earnings anchor snaps to the GDP anchor.
Real Home Prices Context — no vote
CONTEXT, not a vote: inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller (Jan 2000 = 100). The equity framework read almost nothing at the 2007 top — this gauge shows where that bubble actually lived.
Baa Credit Spread Context — no vote
CONTEXT, not a vote: the bond market’s price of corporate risk (Moody’s Baa − 10Y, 1953+). TIGHT is the complacency signature — mid-2007 was the canonical case — and credit cracked before equities at both the 2000 and 2007 tops.
Tech Share (XLK/SPY) Context — no vote
CONTEXT, not a vote: the tech sector ETF priced in S&P units — how concentrated the market’s bet on technology is. History starts 1999, so it can’t see the 2000 peak under the 5-year rule; at records today.
03
The bubble fingerprint — today vs each peak
Every cell is the conservative bubble percentile used for voting— the lower of the expanding-history and trailing-20-year readings, oriented so higher always means more bubble-like. Today's profile most resembles the 2000 peak. “—” means the gauge lacked five years of published history at that date.
Bubble percentile:0–24 cool25–4950–7475–8990+ extreme
| Gauge | Raw today | Today vote | 2000 peak | 2007 peak | 2021–22 peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffett Indicator (Cap/GDP) high = bubble · as of Q1 2026 | 250% | 97thfull 99 · 20Y 97 | 99th164% | 85th131% | 98th229% |
| Market Cap / Corporate Profits high = bubble · as of Q1 2026 | 20.2× | 93rdfull 93 · 20Y 94 | 99th27.4× | 31st12.9× | 91st18.5× |
| Shiller CAPE (P/E10) high = bubble · as of 2026-07-01 | 41.4× | 99thfull 99 · 20Y 100 | 97th42.2× | 66th26.7× | 98th38.3× |
| Excess CAPE Yield low = bubble · as of 2026-07-01 | 1.39% | 77thfull 77 · 20Y 94 | 99th-1.28% | 44th1.83% | 51st3.28% |
| Household Equity Allocation high = bubble · as of Q1 2026 | 45.8% | 97thfull 98 · 20Y 97 | 98th37.4% | 87th33.5% | 98th41.6% |
| Sideline Cash Ratio low = bubble · as of Q1 2026 | 0.34 | 96thfull 96 · 20Y 97 | 99th0.31 | 69th0.47 | 93rd0.41 |
| Household Cash Allocation low = bubble · as of Q1 2026 | 14.5% | 64thfull 64 · 20Y 65 | 98th12.8% | 68th14.1% | 46th15.1% |
| SPY / M2 Money Supply high = bubble · as of 2026-05-01 | 32.8 | 100thfull 100 · 20Y 100 | 92nd29.4 | 62nd20.0 | 84th21.4 |
| Margin Debt: Excess Leverage high = bubble · as of 2026-06-01 | 28.1 pp | 96thfull 96 · 20Y 98 | 99th63.2 pp | 94th32.4 pp | 45th1.4 pp |
| Margin Debt as % of M2 high = bubble · as of 2026-05-01 | 6.1% | 100thfull 100 · 20Y 100 | 100th6.1% | 91st4.9% | 79th4.3% |
| Context — displayed, but no vote | |||||
| Top 1% Wealth Share context — no vote · as of Q1 2026 | 31.6% | 98thfull 98 · 20Y 98 | 98th27.9% | 99th28.7% | 96th30.8% |
| Corporate Profits % of GDP context — no vote · as of Q1 2026 | 12.4% | 98thfull 100 · 20Y 98 | 45th6.0% | 92nd10.2% | 98th12.4% |
| Real Home Prices context — no vote · as of 2026-04-01 | 168.6 | 81stfull 91 · 20Y 81 | 79th99.8 | 89th146.7 | 99th167.0 |
| Baa Credit Spread context — no vote · as of 2026-06-01 | 1.53pp | 68thfull 68 · 20Y 97 | 37th1.77pp | 29th2.07pp | 51st1.84pp |
| Tech Share (XLK/SPY) context — no vote · as of 2026-07-24 | 0.238 | 99thfull 99 · 20Y 99 | — | 50th0.088 | 98th0.184 |
Scored gauges
high = bubble · as of Q1 2026
Today
93rd
full 93 · 20Y 94
2000 peak
99th
27.4×
2007 peak
31st
12.9×
2021–22 peak
91st
18.5×
Shiller CAPE (P/E10)41.4×
high = bubble · as of 2026-07-01
Today
99th
full 99 · 20Y 100
2000 peak
97th
42.2×
2007 peak
66th
26.7×
2021–22 peak
98th
38.3×
Excess CAPE Yield1.39%
low = bubble · as of 2026-07-01
Today
77th
full 77 · 20Y 94
2000 peak
99th
-1.28%
2007 peak
44th
1.83%
2021–22 peak
51st
3.28%
high = bubble · as of Q1 2026
Today
97th
full 98 · 20Y 97
2000 peak
98th
37.4%
2007 peak
87th
33.5%
2021–22 peak
98th
41.6%
low = bubble · as of Q1 2026
Today
96th
full 96 · 20Y 97
2000 peak
99th
0.31
2007 peak
69th
0.47
2021–22 peak
93rd
0.41
low = bubble · as of Q1 2026
Today
64th
full 64 · 20Y 65
2000 peak
98th
12.8%
2007 peak
68th
14.1%
2021–22 peak
46th
15.1%
high = bubble · as of 2026-05-01
Today
100th
full 100 · 20Y 100
2000 peak
92nd
29.4
2007 peak
62nd
20.0
2021–22 peak
84th
21.4
Margin Debt: Excess Leverage28.1 pp
high = bubble · as of 2026-06-01
Today
96th
full 96 · 20Y 98
2000 peak
99th
63.2 pp
2007 peak
94th
32.4 pp
2021–22 peak
45th
1.4 pp
high = bubble · as of 2026-05-01
Today
100th
full 100 · 20Y 100
2000 peak
100th
6.1%
2007 peak
91st
4.9%
2021–22 peak
79th
4.3%
Context — no vote
Top 1% Wealth Share31.6%
context — no vote · as of Q1 2026
Today
98th
full 98 · 20Y 98
2000 peak
98th
27.9%
2007 peak
99th
28.7%
2021–22 peak
96th
30.8%
context — no vote · as of Q1 2026
Today
98th
full 100 · 20Y 98
2000 peak
45th
6.0%
2007 peak
92nd
10.2%
2021–22 peak
98th
12.4%
Real Home Prices168.6
context — no vote · as of 2026-04-01
Today
81st
full 91 · 20Y 81
2000 peak
79th
99.8
2007 peak
89th
146.7
2021–22 peak
99th
167.0
Baa Credit Spread1.53pp
context — no vote · as of 2026-06-01
Today
68th
full 68 · 20Y 97
2000 peak
37th
1.77pp
2007 peak
29th
2.07pp
2021–22 peak
51st
1.84pp
Tech Share (XLK/SPY)0.238
context — no vote · as of 2026-07-24
Today
99th
full 99 · 20Y 99
2000 peak
—
—
2007 peak
50th
0.088
2021–22 peak
98th
0.184
Peak columns are point-in-time: the value shown is the latest that had been RELEASED by the peak date (the Fed's Z.1 lags a quarter by ~10 weeks), and its percentile uses only history published by then. That is why the 2000 column shows Q4-1999 vintage readings — it is what an investor could actually have computed on 2000-03-24.
04
What happened next — SPY after each score band
Average SPY price returns after each month in the point-in-time history (1997-01 → 2026-06), grouped by the share of live gauges at extremes. Normalizing the share keeps the six- and seven-gauge eras comparable. Even in the bubble zone, the next 12 months averaged positive; the damage appeared over 3–10 years and in drawdowns.
Current score band
Bubble zone (70%+)
52 monthly observations
Forward 1Y
+7.9%
Forward 3Y
-1.8%
Max DD 3Y
-35.9%
| Share extreme that month | Months | Fwd 1y | Fwd 3y | Fwd 5y | Fwd 10y | Avg max DD (3y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubble zone (70%+)Today | 52 | +7.9% | -1.8% | -9.5% | +4.9% | -35.9% |
| Elevated (40–69%) | 43 | +8.9% | +31.7% | +30.8% | +21.2% | -26.1% |
| Low share (<40%) | 95 | +5.8% | +27.6% | +49.2% | +109.5% | -31.0% |
| None extreme (0%) | 164 | +11.0% | +29.0% | +52.1% | +137.3% | -22.3% |
Bubble zone (70%+)
52 monthly observations
Forward 1Y
+7.9%
Forward 3Y
-1.8%
Max DD 3Y
-35.9%
Forward 5Y
-9.5%
Forward 10Y
+4.9%
Elevated (40–69%)
43 monthly observations
Forward 1Y
+8.9%
Forward 3Y
+31.7%
Max DD 3Y
-26.1%
Forward 5Y
+30.8%
Forward 10Y
+21.2%
Low share (<40%)
95 monthly observations
Forward 1Y
+5.8%
Forward 3Y
+27.6%
Max DD 3Y
-31.0%
Forward 5Y
+49.2%
Forward 10Y
+109.5%
None extreme (0%)
164 monthly observations
Forward 1Y
+11.0%
Forward 3Y
+29.0%
Max DD 3Y
-22.3%
Forward 5Y
+52.1%
Forward 10Y
+137.3%
Overlapping monthly windows — adjacent months share most of their forward path, so sample sizes are optimistic. Bubble-zone months cluster in 1998–2000 and 2021+; recent months lack complete long horizons and drop out of the longer columns. SPY price return, dividends excluded.
05
The breadth check — confirmation, not a vote
Valuation extremes with broad participation have historically run longer than extremes carried by narrow leadership. Breadth modifies the read — broad, narrow, or deteriorating — but does not change the score (history since ~2011; these could not have seen the 2000 or 2007 tops).
Breadth modifier
Mixed / fragile
Valuation is extreme while internal damage is elevated or widening. That makes the setup less broadly confirmed and more fragile, but it does not change the valuation score.
Broad · broadening
The average stock (equal-weight RSP) is 0.7% off its 1-year high vs 2.7% for cap-weighted SPY — a gap of 2.0pp. As of 2026-07-24.
34% of the S&P 500
Share of S&P 500 members 20%+ below their own 1-year high (84th percentile since 2011); Nasdaq-100: 53%. As of 2026-07-24.
06
What this page cannot tell you
None of these gauges time tops — and our own study above proves it: months in the 70%+ bubble zone still averaged a positive next 12 months. The framework read 6/6 in December 1997, then the Nasdaq tripled. What high scores have reliably meant is weaker 3–10 year returns and deeper drawdowns from that starting point — and the same table read in reverse (2009-style zero scores) marked generational entries. Use it as regime context and position-sizing input, never as a sell signal on its own.
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How Bubble Tracker Works
- 1Three pillars of scored gaugesDirect valuation (the Shiller CAPE, its Excess CAPE Yield — valuation vs bonds, the rates rebuttal — the Buffett Indicator and the market-cap-to-profits multiple), allocation & liquidity (household equity and cash allocations, sideline cash, SPY/M2 — four overlapping views that vote as one pillar), and leverage (margin debt growing faster than the market, and margin debt as a share of M2 — the flow and the stock of borrowed money). Top-1% wealth share, corporate profits % of GDP, real home prices, the Baa credit spread and tech's share of the market (XLK/SPY) are shown as context but get no vote; breadth is a separate confirmation check.
- 2Score each gauge point-in-time, with no look-aheadA reading only exists once it was actually published (the Fed's Z.1 lags a quarter by ~10 weeks; FINRA margin data by ~7 weeks), and every percentile uses only history available at the evaluation date. A gauge is extreme past the 90th "bubble percentile" — oriented so higher always means more bubble-like — under BOTH its full history and the trailing 20 years, the second test preventing structurally trending series from being mechanically extreme.
- 3Calibrate the same score at every prior peakBecause scoring is release-aware, the framework can be replayed honestly: what would it have printed on 2000-03-24, 2007-10-09, 2022-01-03? It maxed out at a full-basket 10/10 in 2000, read 2/10 in 2007 (both leverage gauges — a credit-and-leverage bubble, not a valuation bubble), and was elevated at the 2021–22 peak. That score-versus-score comparison, not adjective inflation, is what backs the headline answer.
- 4Demonstrate the outcome claimThe monthly score history is joined to SPY forward returns: average 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year returns and the average worst drawdown after each normalized score band. Bands use the share of live gauges at extremes, so the six- and seven-gauge eras stay comparable. The result is the page's honesty in numbers — high scores said little about the NEXT year, and a lot about the next three to ten.
Who Uses Bubble Tracker
Long-term investors
One page for the "should I be worried about valuations?" question — answered with a score that was demonstrably low in 2009 and high in 2000, not with adjectives.
Risk managers
A dated, reproducible extreme share with pillar structure and a forward-outcome table to anchor exposure discussions.
Market writers & analysts
Every cell is point-in-time and cites its source series, so "worse than 2000" claims can be checked against what was actually knowable in 2000.
Contrarians
The same framework works in reverse: zero-score months (2009-style) preceded the best long-horizon returns in the study.
Pro Tips
01
The score is a regime gauge, not a timer
Our own outcome table shows months with 70%+ of live gauges extreme still averaged a positive next 12 months. The framework read 6/6 in late 1997 — the Nasdaq then tripled. The information is in the 3–10 year columns and the drawdowns.
02
Read the valuation anchors together
The Buffett Indicator (vs GDP) is far past its 2000 reading; cap-to-profits (vs earnings) is well below its 2000 record — the difference is the historic profit boom. And the Excess CAPE Yield (vs bonds) is the framework's own rates rebuttal: it voted extreme at the 2000 peak, stayed healthy through zero-rate 2021, and sits between the two today.
03
Watch the breadth modifier
Valuation extremes with the average stock confirming have historically run longer than extremes on narrow leadership. Breadth deteriorating while the score is high is the historically dangerous combination.
04
Quarterly data moves slowly
The Z.1-based gauges update quarterly with a ~10-week lag — the timestamps line states exactly what vintage you are looking at. Between releases, the daily and monthly gauges are the fresh information.
Common Issues & Solutions
Why no single blended "bubble score"?▾
Weightings hide judgment calls nobody can check. A pillar-structured count of documented thresholds — each gauge, each direction, each percentile stated, evaluated point-in-time — is falsifiable. You can disagree with a threshold and still use the table.
Why do the peak columns show "stale" values?▾
Deliberately. The 2000 column shows the latest data an investor could actually have had on 2000-03-24 — mostly Q4-1999 vintage, because the Z.1 publishes with a ~10-week lag. Comparing today's knowledge to a backfilled past would flatter the framework with look-ahead.
Why does 2007 score so low?▾
Because 2007 was not a valuation bubble — equity valuations were mid-range; the excess lived in credit, housing and broker leverage, and the framework shows exactly that: ~2 of 10 gauges extreme at the 2007 peak, both of them in the leverage pillar, while every valuation gauge read mid-range. It distinguishes bubble types instead of flagging every top.
Does a high score mean a crash is coming?▾
No — and the outcome table on the page quantifies exactly that. High-score months averaged positive returns over the following year; the weakness shows up over 3–10 years and in deeper drawdowns. Conditions, not timing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the stock market in a bubble right now?▾
By this framework, the current answer is on the page, backed by a score you can audit: three pillars of valuation, allocation and leverage gauges, each scored point-in-time against its own published history, with the identical method replayed at the 2000, 2007 and 2021 peaks for calibration. The page states the current count, which gauges drive it, and which peak today most resembles.
What indicators signal a stock market bubble?▾
The recurring signatures across history: market value far above GDP and earnings (Buffett Indicator, cap-to-profits), households fully allocated to equities with thin cash cushions, sideline cash small relative to market value, and margin debt growing much faster than the market. This page tracks all of them with release-aware full histories.
How does today compare to the 2000 dot-com bubble?▾
Score versus score, computed the same way: the framework maxed out at the 2000 peak and the page shows today's count beside it, plus a per-gauge fingerprint heatmap. As of the latest data the profile most resembles 2000 — extreme against GDP and allocation measures, though the earnings-based multiple remains below its dot-com record.
Was 2007 a bubble by these measures?▾
No — and the framework says so: replayed on 2007-10-09 it read roughly 2 of 10 gauges extreme — both in the leverage pillar, none in valuation. The 2007–09 crisis grew out of credit, housing and leverage, not equity valuations. That distinction is what a valuation framework should capture.
Does a bubble reading mean stocks will crash?▾
No. The page's own outcome study shows months with 70%+ of live gauges extreme still averaged positive returns over the NEXT 12 months — but materially weaker 3-, 5- and 10-year returns and deeper maximum drawdowns. Valuation extremes describe conditions and change long-horizon odds; they do not schedule the turn.
What data does the Bubble Tracker use?▾
Federal Reserve Z.1 financial accounts and H.8 bank data plus BEA national accounts (via FRED), FINRA margin statistics, CBOE volatility indices, and our own daily breadth universe of ~5,500 stocks. Every gauge links to its dedicated page with the full series, methodology and CSV.
How often does it update?▾
Daily gauges after every US close; margin debt monthly with FINRA; the Z.1-based gauges quarterly with the Fed's release. The header states the exact vintage of each cadence, and every row shows its own as-of date.
Explore Other Tools
Shiller CAPE
The cyclically adjusted P/E since 1881 — the most-cited valuation gauge, from Shiller's own dataset
Buffett Indicator
Market cap to GDP from the Fed's Z.1 — the framework's primary valuation anchor
Market Cap to Profits
The aggregate P/E cross-check — same numerator, earnings denominator
Sideline Cash Ratio
Cash vs equity market value — near its 2000 record low
Hidden Bear Index
Is the average stock confirming the index? The breadth modifier
Last updated: 2026-07-24